ТОП авторов и книг ИСКАТЬ КНИГУ В БИБЛИОТЕКЕ
Norton, 2001). Он придерживается точки зрения, сформулированной в ранних работах, и предсказывает постепенный вывод американских войск из Европы и Восточной Азии и возвращение в эти регионы геополитического соперничества. Прочие «реалисты», например, Кеннет Уолтц, также рассматривают экономический подъем Японии и Китая как предвестие геополитического соперничества в регионе. «Рано или поздно международный статус государств придет в соответствие с их материальными ресурсами». Kenneth N. Waltz, «The Emerging Structure of International Politics», International Security, vol. 18, no. 2 (Fall 1993), p. 66. См. также Aaron L. Friedberg, «Ripe for Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in a Multipolar Asia», International Security, vol. 18, no. 3 (Winter 1993–1994), p. 5–33.
22.Mearsheimer, «Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War», p. 36.
23.Mearsheimer, «Back to the Future», p. 147.
24.Mearsheimer, «Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War», p. 35.
25.Ibid., p. 46.
26.Ibid.
27.Ibid., p. 40.
28.Ibid., p. 42.
29.Ibid., p. 50.
30.Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations?», p. 24.
31. Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations and thej Remaking of World Order», p. 41–43.
32. Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations?», p. 25.
33. Ibid., p. 31.
34. Ibid., p. 22.
35. Ibid., p. 29.
36. Ibid., p. 48.
37. Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order», p. 20
38. Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations?», p. 49. Paul M. Kennedy, «The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000» (New York: Random House, 1987); Robert D. Kaplan, «Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History» (New York: St. Martin's, 1993); and Robert D. Kaplan, «The Ends of the Earth: A Journey at the Dawn of the 21 st Century» (New York: Random House, 1996).
40.Connelly and Kennedy, «Must It Be the Rest Against the West?», p. 62, 69,79.
41.Kennedy, «Preparing for the Twenty-first Century», p. 331.
42.Robert D. Kaplan, «The Coming Anarchy», p. xiii.
43.Ibid., p. 24.
44.Connelly and Kennedy, «Must It Be the Rest Against the West?», p. 62.
45.Robert S. Chase, Emily B. Hill, and Paul Kennedy, «Pivotal States and U.S. Strategy», Foreign Affairs, vol. 75, no. 1 (January–February 1996), p. 63.
46.Kaplan, «The Coming Anarchy», p. 7, 19.
47.Connelly and Kennedy, «Must It Be the Rest Against the West?», p. 79.
48.Kaplan, «The Coming Anarchy», p. 120.
49.Ibid.
50.Ibid., p. 125.
51.Friedman, «The Lexus and the Olive Tree», p. 7–8.
52.Ibid., p. xviii.
53.Ibid., p. 201.
54.Ibid., p. 86.
55.См., for example, Robert O. Keohane, «After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy» (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984).
56.См., for example, Thomas Risse-Kappen, «Cooperation Among Democracies: The European Influence on U. S. Foreign Policy» (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997).
57.Joseph S. Nye, Jr., «Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power» (New York: Basic Books, 1990).
58.Friedman, «The Lexus and the Olive Tree», p. 196–198.
59.Ibid., p. 41.
60.Ibid.
61.Ibid., p. 212.
62.Thomas Friedman, «World War III», New York Times, September 13,2001. Rankings based on market capitalization as of March 28, 2002, Financial Times Global 500 Guide, May 8, 2002. Available at: http://specials ft com/spdocs/ FT3BNS7 BW0D.pdf.
64. Jane Perlez, «With Time Short, Albright Stays Aloft», New York Times, July 3, 2000.
65. World Bank, China 2020: Development Challenges in the New Century (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1997), p. 103.
66. Senate Resolution 208, November 8, 1999.
67. Henry Kissinger, «U.S. Intervention in Kosovo Is a Mistake», Boston Globe, March 1,1999.
68. Cited in Edmund Andrews, «Bush Angers Europe by Eroding Pact on Warming», New York Times, April 1, 2001.
69. David Sanger, «Bush Flatly States U.S. Will Pull Out of Missile Treaty», New York Times, August 24, 2001.
70. Dana Milbank, «Bush Advocates a Wider NATO», Washington Post, June 16, 2001.
71. «Bush Unpopular in Europe, Seen as Unilateralist», August 15, 2001. Available at: http://people-press org/reports/display php3?ReportID=5. Survey conducted by the International Herald Tribune, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. См. также Adam Clymer, «Surveys Find European Public Critical of Bush Policies», New York Times, August 16, 2001.
72. JohnKifner, «56IslamicNationsAvoidCondemningU.S. Attacks, but Warn on Civilian Casualties», New York Times, October 11,2001.
73. Laurie Goodstein, «Muslim Scholars Back Fight Against Terrorists», New York Times, October 12, 2001.
74. Cm. Stephen M. Walt, «The Origins of Alliances» (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987).
ГЛАВА 3
1. President Calvin Coolidge, State of the Union Address, December 4, 1928, a; cited in John Kenneth Galbraith, «The Great Crash, 1929» (New York: Time Inc., 1961), p. 7.
2. Ibid., p. 26–27, 70.
3. Cited ibid., p. 38.
4. Cited ibid., p. 73.
5. Cited ibid., p. 74.
6. Ibid., p. 80.
7. Piers Brendon, «The Dark Valley: A Panorama of the 1930s» (New York: Knopf, 2000), p. 86.
8. Charles P. Kindleberger, «The World in Depression, 1929–1939» (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1973), p. 171–172.
9. Dietmar Rothermund, «The Global Impact of the Great Depression, 1929–1939» (London: Routledge, 1996), p. 55.
10. Cited in Brendon, «The Dark Valley», p. 31.
11. Cited inTatsuji Takeuchia, «War and Diplomacy in the Japanese Empire» (New York: Doubleday, 1935), p. 353.
12. Kindleberger, «The World in Depression», p. 308.
13. Galbraith, «The Great Crash», p. 173–174.
14. Thomas L. Friedman, «The Lexus and the Olive Tree» (New York: Farrar, Strai & Giroux, 1999), p. 7.
15. Ibid., p. 7–8.
16. Thomas Paine, «Rights of Man», in Collected Writings (New York: Literal Classics of the United States, 1995), p. 598–599.
17. John Stuart Mill, «Principles of Political Economy: With Some of Their Applications to Social Philosophy» (Fairfield, N.J.: Augustus M. Kelley Publishers, 1976), p. 582.
18. Norman Angell, «The Great Illusion: A Study of the Relation of Military Power in Nations to Their Economic and Social Advantage» (New York: Putnam, 1910), p. 31,54–55. Название связано с иллюзорным представлением о том, что государства могут обеспечить свое благосостояние посредством войны.
19. Congressman Paul Ryan, statement to U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Banking and Financial Ser vices, Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, «Margin Lending», March 21, 2000. Available at: http:// commdocs house gov/committees/bank/hba63474.000/hba6347 40 .HTM.
20. Robert J. Shiller, «Irrational Exuberance» (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2000), p. 35.
21. Ibid., p. xii–xiii.
22. Ibid., p. 5–9. Отметим, что Шиллер использует собственный метод расчета соотношения цены и стоимости акций и поэтому его данные могут отличаться от данных из других источников.
23. New York Stock Exchange, «New York Stock Exchange Member Firms Customers' Margin Debt, January 1992 through February 2002». Available at: http://www nyse com/pdfs/margin0202.pdf. См. также Gretchen Morgenson, «Buying on Margin Becomes a Habit», New York Times, March 24, 2000.
24. U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Banking and Financial Services, Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, «Margin Lending», March 21,2000. Available at: http://commdocs house gov/committees/bank/hba63474.000/hba6347 40 .htm.
25. International Monetary Fund, «International Capital Markets: Developments, Prospects, and Key Policy Issues» (Washington, D.C.: IMF, 2000), p. 10–11.
26. Stephan Haggard, «The Political Economy of the Asian Financial Crisis» (Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 2000), p. 4, 6.
27. Gerard Baker and Stephen Fidler, «O'Neill Signals Hands-Off Stance on World Economy», Financial Times, February 15, 2001.
28. Закон предусматривает, что инвесторы могут кредитовать не более 50 процентов пакета акций, который они приобретают. В августе 2001 года вступили в действие новые правила фондовых торгов, с более строгими требованиями к кредитным покупкам в целях прекращения спекулятивных биржевых игр.
29. Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan, December 5, 1996, Francis Boyer Lecture of the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. Available at: http:/ /federalreserve gov/boarddocs/speeches/l996/l9961205.htm.
30. Charlie Rose Transcript no. 2713, program of June 27, 2000.
31. См.: Haggard, «The Political Economy of the Asian Financial Crisis», p. 1–13.
32. Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan, «Global Challenges», July 12, 2000, at the Financial Crisis Conference, Council on Foreign Relations, New York. Available at: http:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176
22.Mearsheimer, «Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War», p. 36.
23.Mearsheimer, «Back to the Future», p. 147.
24.Mearsheimer, «Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War», p. 35.
25.Ibid., p. 46.
26.Ibid.
27.Ibid., p. 40.
28.Ibid., p. 42.
29.Ibid., p. 50.
30.Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations?», p. 24.
31. Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations and thej Remaking of World Order», p. 41–43.
32. Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations?», p. 25.
33. Ibid., p. 31.
34. Ibid., p. 22.
35. Ibid., p. 29.
36. Ibid., p. 48.
37. Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order», p. 20
38. Huntington, «The Clash of Civilizations?», p. 49. Paul M. Kennedy, «The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000» (New York: Random House, 1987); Robert D. Kaplan, «Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History» (New York: St. Martin's, 1993); and Robert D. Kaplan, «The Ends of the Earth: A Journey at the Dawn of the 21 st Century» (New York: Random House, 1996).
40.Connelly and Kennedy, «Must It Be the Rest Against the West?», p. 62, 69,79.
41.Kennedy, «Preparing for the Twenty-first Century», p. 331.
42.Robert D. Kaplan, «The Coming Anarchy», p. xiii.
43.Ibid., p. 24.
44.Connelly and Kennedy, «Must It Be the Rest Against the West?», p. 62.
45.Robert S. Chase, Emily B. Hill, and Paul Kennedy, «Pivotal States and U.S. Strategy», Foreign Affairs, vol. 75, no. 1 (January–February 1996), p. 63.
46.Kaplan, «The Coming Anarchy», p. 7, 19.
47.Connelly and Kennedy, «Must It Be the Rest Against the West?», p. 79.
48.Kaplan, «The Coming Anarchy», p. 120.
49.Ibid.
50.Ibid., p. 125.
51.Friedman, «The Lexus and the Olive Tree», p. 7–8.
52.Ibid., p. xviii.
53.Ibid., p. 201.
54.Ibid., p. 86.
55.См., for example, Robert O. Keohane, «After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy» (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984).
56.См., for example, Thomas Risse-Kappen, «Cooperation Among Democracies: The European Influence on U. S. Foreign Policy» (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997).
57.Joseph S. Nye, Jr., «Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power» (New York: Basic Books, 1990).
58.Friedman, «The Lexus and the Olive Tree», p. 196–198.
59.Ibid., p. 41.
60.Ibid.
61.Ibid., p. 212.
62.Thomas Friedman, «World War III», New York Times, September 13,2001. Rankings based on market capitalization as of March 28, 2002, Financial Times Global 500 Guide, May 8, 2002. Available at: http://specials ft com/spdocs/ FT3BNS7 BW0D.pdf.
64. Jane Perlez, «With Time Short, Albright Stays Aloft», New York Times, July 3, 2000.
65. World Bank, China 2020: Development Challenges in the New Century (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1997), p. 103.
66. Senate Resolution 208, November 8, 1999.
67. Henry Kissinger, «U.S. Intervention in Kosovo Is a Mistake», Boston Globe, March 1,1999.
68. Cited in Edmund Andrews, «Bush Angers Europe by Eroding Pact on Warming», New York Times, April 1, 2001.
69. David Sanger, «Bush Flatly States U.S. Will Pull Out of Missile Treaty», New York Times, August 24, 2001.
70. Dana Milbank, «Bush Advocates a Wider NATO», Washington Post, June 16, 2001.
71. «Bush Unpopular in Europe, Seen as Unilateralist», August 15, 2001. Available at: http://people-press org/reports/display php3?ReportID=5. Survey conducted by the International Herald Tribune, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. См. также Adam Clymer, «Surveys Find European Public Critical of Bush Policies», New York Times, August 16, 2001.
72. JohnKifner, «56IslamicNationsAvoidCondemningU.S. Attacks, but Warn on Civilian Casualties», New York Times, October 11,2001.
73. Laurie Goodstein, «Muslim Scholars Back Fight Against Terrorists», New York Times, October 12, 2001.
74. Cm. Stephen M. Walt, «The Origins of Alliances» (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987).
ГЛАВА 3
1. President Calvin Coolidge, State of the Union Address, December 4, 1928, a; cited in John Kenneth Galbraith, «The Great Crash, 1929» (New York: Time Inc., 1961), p. 7.
2. Ibid., p. 26–27, 70.
3. Cited ibid., p. 38.
4. Cited ibid., p. 73.
5. Cited ibid., p. 74.
6. Ibid., p. 80.
7. Piers Brendon, «The Dark Valley: A Panorama of the 1930s» (New York: Knopf, 2000), p. 86.
8. Charles P. Kindleberger, «The World in Depression, 1929–1939» (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1973), p. 171–172.
9. Dietmar Rothermund, «The Global Impact of the Great Depression, 1929–1939» (London: Routledge, 1996), p. 55.
10. Cited in Brendon, «The Dark Valley», p. 31.
11. Cited inTatsuji Takeuchia, «War and Diplomacy in the Japanese Empire» (New York: Doubleday, 1935), p. 353.
12. Kindleberger, «The World in Depression», p. 308.
13. Galbraith, «The Great Crash», p. 173–174.
14. Thomas L. Friedman, «The Lexus and the Olive Tree» (New York: Farrar, Strai & Giroux, 1999), p. 7.
15. Ibid., p. 7–8.
16. Thomas Paine, «Rights of Man», in Collected Writings (New York: Literal Classics of the United States, 1995), p. 598–599.
17. John Stuart Mill, «Principles of Political Economy: With Some of Their Applications to Social Philosophy» (Fairfield, N.J.: Augustus M. Kelley Publishers, 1976), p. 582.
18. Norman Angell, «The Great Illusion: A Study of the Relation of Military Power in Nations to Their Economic and Social Advantage» (New York: Putnam, 1910), p. 31,54–55. Название связано с иллюзорным представлением о том, что государства могут обеспечить свое благосостояние посредством войны.
19. Congressman Paul Ryan, statement to U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Banking and Financial Ser vices, Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, «Margin Lending», March 21, 2000. Available at: http:// commdocs house gov/committees/bank/hba63474.000/hba6347 40 .HTM.
20. Robert J. Shiller, «Irrational Exuberance» (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2000), p. 35.
21. Ibid., p. xii–xiii.
22. Ibid., p. 5–9. Отметим, что Шиллер использует собственный метод расчета соотношения цены и стоимости акций и поэтому его данные могут отличаться от данных из других источников.
23. New York Stock Exchange, «New York Stock Exchange Member Firms Customers' Margin Debt, January 1992 through February 2002». Available at: http://www nyse com/pdfs/margin0202.pdf. См. также Gretchen Morgenson, «Buying on Margin Becomes a Habit», New York Times, March 24, 2000.
24. U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Banking and Financial Services, Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, «Margin Lending», March 21,2000. Available at: http://commdocs house gov/committees/bank/hba63474.000/hba6347 40 .htm.
25. International Monetary Fund, «International Capital Markets: Developments, Prospects, and Key Policy Issues» (Washington, D.C.: IMF, 2000), p. 10–11.
26. Stephan Haggard, «The Political Economy of the Asian Financial Crisis» (Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 2000), p. 4, 6.
27. Gerard Baker and Stephen Fidler, «O'Neill Signals Hands-Off Stance on World Economy», Financial Times, February 15, 2001.
28. Закон предусматривает, что инвесторы могут кредитовать не более 50 процентов пакета акций, который они приобретают. В августе 2001 года вступили в действие новые правила фондовых торгов, с более строгими требованиями к кредитным покупкам в целях прекращения спекулятивных биржевых игр.
29. Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan, December 5, 1996, Francis Boyer Lecture of the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. Available at: http:/ /federalreserve gov/boarddocs/speeches/l996/l9961205.htm.
30. Charlie Rose Transcript no. 2713, program of June 27, 2000.
31. См.: Haggard, «The Political Economy of the Asian Financial Crisis», p. 1–13.
32. Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan, «Global Challenges», July 12, 2000, at the Financial Crisis Conference, Council on Foreign Relations, New York. Available at: http:
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